The NAB Residential Property Index rose sharply in Q2 2023, with NAB economists predicting property price rises of 4.7% this year and 5% to the end of 2024.
Based on an expectation that the RBA will lift rates to 4.6% by September and then leave rates on hold until 2024, NAB suggests 9.7% total property price growth is possible over the next 18 month period with slowed interest rate rises adding support to median values.
9.7 per cent total growth over the next 18 months would push the current $803,000 median property value reported by PropTrack in their July Home Price Index closer to $880,000.
NAB suggest contributing factors include rising immigration, while economic experts suggest interest rates and a slowing economy could tell a different story.
PropTrack’s executive manager of economic research Cameron Kusher said market supply will be the key factor determining property price rises.
Mr Kusher indicates that the market could see an influx of new properties in 2023 as mortgage holders transition away from low fixed rates to unmanageable higher rates, thereby slowing property price growth.
The RBA’s new governor Michele Bullock takes over the reigns in September when many suggest another rate rise is imminent. But what happens after that remains to be seen, with the fate of the property market sitting on a rather hazy horizon with snippets of sunshine beyond.
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